The Associated Press called Florida Amendment 3 approved. Unofficial Florida Election Watch returns checked at 12:57 p.m. EST Nov. 4 showed 4,917,482 yes votes statewide, or 61.99%, above the 60% passage threshold. This Lakewood Ranch Beacon report examines projected budget effects in Manatee and Sarasota counties, including a combined $1.6 billion estimate over five years.

The property tax cut drew 65% support in Manatee County and topped 62% in Sarasota County, according to Suncoast Searchlight. Statewide, the measure cleared the 60% threshold with about 62% of the vote and 95% of ballots counted on election night.

The Manatee County Sheriff's Office said it would lose more than $50 million by the 2028 budget cycle, when the amendment's provisions are fully enacted. An independent statewide research institute projected Sarasota County would face shortfalls of $241 million over the first two years alone. The city of Sarasota projected a $5.6 million hit to its general fund but had not fully calculated the impact on other parts of its budget.

Sarasota County Commissioner Tom Knight said he plans to treat the next budget cycle like a recession. "I'm certain we won't be filling positions," Knight said, "and possibly, laying people off."

Sarasota City Commissioner Liz Alpert said on election night that the result was "very disappointing" and called it "really disastrous for cities and counties across the state."

Manatee County Commissioner Tal Siddique told Suncoast Searchlight that voter frustration drove the result. He said people are angry about the cost of living and government spending, and that the county would take that message to heart. Siddique said residents should expect a different level of service going forward.

What changes for homeowners

The amendment raises the homestead exemption for non-school taxes from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and to $250,000 in 2028. It also caps annual assessment increases for non-homestead properties, such as businesses, second homes and rental properties, at 5% per year, the Bradenton Herald reported.

In Manatee County, the average homeowner is expected to save about $1,200 a year by 2028. In Sarasota County, the figure is about $700.

Statewide fallout

The Revenue Estimating Conference (REC), a panel of state economists and legislative officials, predicted a $4.95 billion shortfall on non-school property taxes across Florida in the first year. That figure is projected to grow to $11.86 billion by fiscal year 2031-32, resulting in a cumulative $45.8 billion loss to local governments over five years.

The amendment was a major priority for outgoing Gov. Ron DeSantis. The Bradenton Herald reported DeSantis will likely call lawmakers back to Tallahassee for a special session to craft implementing legislation.

Holly Bullard, a policy expert with the Florida Policy Institute who lives in Sarasota, said she hopes local officials can increase revenues to prevent deep cuts but worries there is not enough political will to do so.

Florida's tax and budget landscape is set to change as early as January, when the first exemption increase takes effect.